Can Portland Upset A Suddenly Vulnerable Golden State?

Man, we shoulda put money on the Blazers a while ago.

Remember the dismantling they performed on the Thunder in Round One, when everyone thought Westbrook and George were going to outgun them, but ended up going down 4-1 in the series?

And the Denver series, where they played as a true team, both on offense and D, and, despite it being a full seven game series, it always felt like they were the more seasoned team, responding to every run by the Nuggets with patience and maturity.

I mean, we recognized it, but why didn’t we trust it? And here they are, in the West Finals, against a banged up Warriors team, 4 wins away from the NBA Finals! 

OK, OK, we don’t have time to dwell on the past. There’s a whole new series to be played starting tomorrow night, so let’s break it down and see if the Blazers run can continue or if it was just fun while it lasted.

Who’s Hurt and How Hurt Are They?

It all starts with KD. After he left Game 5 with a calf strain, some thought the Warriors season was effectively over. He was averaging an incredible 34.2 points per game in the post-season so far, and, to compliment the 3 point barrage from Curry and Thompson, he provided a nearly unstoppable threat from 2 point range, making 90 two point shots compared to a combined 91 from Steph and Klay.

But in Game 6 of the Rockets series, the Warriors suddenly remembered that they’d been to a few Finals, and even won one, without Durant, and closed out the Rockets in Houston. The belief is that KD will be out for most of the series, but could be back for Game 4 or 5, which gives the Blazers just enough games to try and exploit his absence. 

But Portland isn’t without their own injury issues. Sure, they’ve figured out how to win without Jusuf Nurkic, but one of their essential role players so far in the playoffs, Rodney Hood, hyperextended his knee in Game 7 against the Nuggets, so his status is something to keep an eye on. The Blazers bench goes 9-10 deep, but Hood would be a huge loss.

Backcourt Ballers

You’d have a hard time finding anyone who could argue that this isn’t a matchup of the NBA's two best backcourt tandems. You know Steph and Klay, who between them, average 44.6 points per game in these playoffs. But check out Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. 54 points per game! The most impressive part of that is it seems that whenever one has a poor shooting game, the other steps up big. (Game 7, Lillard had a series low 13, while McCollum poured in 37.) Steph has had his own off-games in the playoffs so far, but he’s had KD or Klay to back him up. With Durant out of the picture, the focus is on the impending free agent Thompson to show his mettle (and FA worth) and keep the Dubs in it.

The Other Guys

For the Warriors, we know the big support players so well, they really don’t feel like support. Andre Iguodala, Draymond Green, Shaun Livingston, Andrew Bogut. But while you might know the names of the Blazers role players, they’re equally as important in their run to the West Finals. Enes Kanter was lost on the Knicks bench, but came to the Northwest mid-season and became invaluable, especially with the loss of Nurkic. And get ready to meet guys like Hood, Aminu, Collins, and Harkless, who give the Blazers whatever's necessary, no questions asked.

The Forecast

Despite KD’s injury, Golden State is still the favorite to not only win the series (-560 to the Blazers +41) but to win the Finals as well (-155 to the Blazers +1500…yes, that’s right +1500.) This is Portland’s first trip to the West Finals since the days of Rasheed Wallace, Steve Smith, and Damon Stoudamire (oh, and Scottie Pippen was there too) and oddsmakers think the more seasoned Warriors will make quick work of them. The most popular odds on Series Correct Score bets have the Warriors winning it in 5.

We’ve been underestimating the Blazers all post-season though, and jumping on the bandwagon could be not only fun but also lucrative. Taking Portland to win in 7 is a great bet at +1500.Winning it all as a tribute to their late owner Paul Allen would make the Pacific Northwest go bonkers. Maybe it will do the same for you too.