The NFL’s postseason is now upon us with the start of NFL Wild Card weekend. All twelve teams in the postseason are 0-0, and there is zero room for error. It’s simple, really. Win and advance, lose and go home. This weekend gives us four games, two in each conference.
To get ready for your betting online, let’s take a look at the Sunday NFC matchups and the value plays we like in each, from the point spreads, to the over/unders, and the prop bets.
Minnesota Vikings (+310) @ New Orleans Saints (-420)
o/u 49.5 (-110), Saints -8 (-110)
The last time these two teams met in the playoffs, in 2018, wide receiver Stefon Diggs would catch an improbable pass and run into the endzone for a 61-yard touchdown as time expired in what would later be dubbed the “Minneapolis Miracle” (What is it with the Saints and devastating playoff moments that result in losses, anyway?).
The Saints are looking to exorcise that demon as well as last year’s from the NFC Championship. On paper, this matchup should be the most entertaining of the weekend, particularly if offense is your thing. Drew Brees is once again doing Drew Brees things, and with the weeks off this season due to an injured thumb, his arm looks fresher than ever. Since losing to Atlanta at home in Week 10, the Saints have scored 36.2 points per game. Not great news for a Minnesota defense that is 5 points better at home than on the road.
Overall, Minnesota’s defense ranked 16th in the league in points allowed on the road (21.8); somehow they will have to handcuff a Saints offense that was 4th in the league in points per game at home (28.4). Both of these teams have multiple weapons on offense. The aforementioned Diggs, and running back Dalvin Cook will be healthy for Minnesota, as well as wide receiver Adam Thielen; Thielen in particular has absolutely dominated when playing the Saints (so much so that I’m saying right now to play Adam Thielen to score a touchdown (+190) ).
The question will be if Kirk Cousins can get everyone the ball while also staying out of his own way. Of course, Brees has all-world talents surrounding him as well, in running back Alvin Kamara and wide receiver Michael Thomas. Those are the bigger names, but the Saints spread the ball around on offense so much that they are almost impossible to defend.
All of the talent on display will result in a high-scoring game, so Total Points over 49.5 (-110) is the play here. Also, Drew Brees over 2.5 Total TD passes (+135) is almost like stealing money. Last but not least, Vikings point spread +8 (-110).
Seattle Seahawks (-125) @ Philadelphia Eagles (+102)
o/u 45 (-110), Seahawks -1.5 (-112)
Last but not least, we have the battle of the birds, as the Seahawks fly east to take on the Eagles in the final Wild Card game of the weekend that is the only rematch of the regular season, as Seattle was just in Philly six weeks ago (a 17-9 Seahawks victory). This game is going to be the Russell vs Carson Show, as both teams are going to rely heavily on their respective quarterbacks to get them through what will come down to a war of attrition.
Both teams are banged up, but the Eagles are really banged up. All-everything tight end Zach Ertz will play with a broken rib and lacerated kidney (yikes), emerging running back Miles Sanders has a sprained ankle, and Pro Bowl guard Brandon Brooks has been ruled out for the season. The wide receivers aren’t even worth mentioning because you couldn’t pick one out of a lineup due to injuries to all of their first-string wide receivers. The word “patchwork” comes to mind. It’s definitely not sunny in Philadelphia.
Seattle isn’t far behind when it comes to injuries as they lost not one, not two, but all three of their running backs from the depth chart in the last several weeks. Things got so bad they had to bring back Marshawn Lynch from literally off the street. They also have injuries all along their offensive line.
This really is the battle of the M.A.S.H. units and it will come down to which quarterback will be able to overcome these injuries. we’ll take the team that went 7-1 on the road this season (including a win vs. the team they’re playing this weekend), over the team that, yes won four in a row, but vs three teams that just fired their head coaches because they stunk so bad (looking at you Dallas/Washington/New York Giants).
The Eagles are a division champion in name only. The NFC East was easily the worst in football, and Philly barely played well enough to win it. The Seahawks are the better team, and played in a much tougher division, going toe to toe both times vs arguably the best team in football (San Francisco). We like their battle tests way better.
The value plays here are all on the Seattle side. We like Seahawks moneyline (-125), Seahawks point spread -1.5 (-112). We also like the Total Points to go over 45 (-110). For prop bets we love Russell Wilson over 250.5 passing yards (-112) vs that porous Eagles secondary. Also, Russell Wilson to run one in for an anytime touchdown scorer (+425), because why not?
There’s your Wild Card weekend betting preview. Look for the Divisional Round preview in the coming days. Enjoy watching the Wild Card games, and good luck! Let the January madness begin!
*Credit to the main photo of this article belongs to Seth Wenig/Associated Press (Wentz), Seth Wenig/Associated Press (Thomas), Ted S. Warren/Associated Press (Lynch)