Can Clemson and Georgia Hold Their Top 4 Status? Can Baylor Stay Undefeated?

It’s week 12 of the 2019 college football season, and we’re inching closer to the finish line of the season and to what four teams will be in the College Football Playoff. Last week we saw some major movement in the inaugural CFP rankings, with then-#3 Alabama and then-#4 Penn State both losing and knocking themselves out of the CFP--for now, at least for Bama’s sake. The #5 Crimson Tide are by no means out of it but will need a little help along with winning out. Penn State would need a lot of help, but any chances of getting back into the CFP begins and ends with their huge game vs. #2 Ohio State in two weeks.

But enough about the teams that are out of it, in this week’s preview we’re going to take a look at three games in week 12 that have some CFP implications.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. #3 Clemson Tigers, o/u 60 (-114)
After the aforementioned losses by Alabama and Penn State last week, Clemson jumped back into the top four in the rankings. Being out of the top four was a mere formality for them as they are undefeated and the reigning champs, so it was only a matter of time until one of the teams above them lost and they’d be right where they belong. Clemson hasn’t had the toughest schedule playing in the weak ACC, in fact one could say they have had the easiest schedule of any of the national champion hopefuls this season. Now in comes Wake Forest, who was ranked #19, 7-1, and rolling going into week 11. Whoops. Apparently, they were looking ahead to this game and proceeded to get blown out by unranked Virginia Tech 36-17 last week. Last year, Clemson beat Wake 63-3, and things won’t be too different this time around. This is the final home game for the Clemson seniors, and they will want to go out with a bang while continuing Clemson’s 25-game winning streak. The value play here is ​Total Points by Home Team over 47.5 (-113).

#4 Georgia Bulldogs (-139) @ #12 Auburn Tigers (+107), o/u 40.5 (-114)
There’s a lot on the line in this huge SEC clash on Saturday. Georgia obviously is in the hunt for a CFP bid and want to keep their standing there, as well as keep their place in the SEC championship game; a win here gives them the SEC East Division and puts them in that game (they win head-to-head tiebreaker vs. Florida). Auburn would love nothing more than to throw a wrench in the national championship dreams of the Bulldogs, while at the same time helping their own resume for a major bowl game come January. Both of these teams are battle-tested, seemingly playing a top-10 team (in their own conference) every week for about a month. This will be a low-scoring affair as both teams bring great defenses in to this game. Georgia hasn’t even given up a rushing touchdown this season, which is incredible. Auburn’s front seven can go up against anybody’s in the country. This will come down to which quarterback will make the least mistakes, and deciding if it will be the senior in Jake Fromm or the true freshman in Bo Nix. Nix has played like a senior in his home games, so we’re going to ride with him here, but it’s close. The value play here is ​Auburn moneyline (+107).

#10 Oklahoma Sooners (-400) @ #13 Baylor Bears (+275), o/u 67.5 (-114)
In arguably the biggest game of the day, the Sooners go into Waco and take on the undefeated Baylor Bears. This is another game with massive CFP implications because if Oklahoma wants to get back in the picture at all, they have to win the Big 12. Winning this game would go a long way towards making that a reality as it would tie them with Baylor for the conference lead (remember, there are no divisions and no conference championship game in the Big 12). Oklahoma hasn’t been playing the best football of late, either, as they lost to Kansas State a couple of weeks ago and barely held on (some would say luckily) to defeat Iowa State in their last game. Baylor, though one of the last five remaining undefeated teams in the nation, hasn’t been as dominating as their record would indicate. A couple of overtime wins over unranked opponents (as recently as last week in a 3OT thriller vs TCU) tells the tale a bit, but a win is a win, and they know if they can pull out a victory over Oklahoma they will be right in the thick of things for a CFP spot. The question for them in this game will be, can their defense slow down the prolific offense enough to give their middling offense a chance to put up some points? We’re not so sure. Jalen Hurts has played in the biggest games during his college career, SEC championships as well as national championships. He won’t be phased here. He lives for big games. The Oklahoma defense isn’t very good, but they will do just enough and Oklahoma will score aplenty. We like ​Away team moneyline and over 67.5 total points (+150). We also like Total Points by Away Team over 38.5 (-103).

So there’s your week 12 college football preview. Things have finally gotten way interesting in college football and none of the top teams have any room for error the rest of the season. It all makes for some great games. Enjoy watching on Saturday, and good luck!

*Credit to the main photo of this article belongs to Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press