It's A Huge Division Rivalry Week As Brady Heads to Buffalo, Baker Lands In Baltimore, and Kirk Takes On Chicago

Week 4 of the NFL season is upon us, marking the quarter point of the NFL season. The weather is getting a little cooler but the action a little hotter as the real meat of the season is beginning. Division play really begins in full, as bitter rivals face each other on the gridiron. These division games are hugely important. They almost seem to count as two games in the standings, because the winner gains advantage while the loser falls not only a game back, but also loses a potential end of season tiebreaker. The intensity of these rivalry games is unmatched.

Let’s take a look at a few of them in week 4.

Cleveland Browns (+245) @ Baltimore Ravens (-315) o/u 45.5
The Browns came into the 2019 season as the NFL’s “it” team; you couldn’t walk into a magazine shop and not see some sort of combination of their quarterback Baker Mayfield and/or their shiny new toy, wide receiver Odell Beckham on a cover. Jr. Many pundits had them at the very least winning the AFC North, and a few even had them representing the AFC in Super Bowl 54. It’s still early in the season and all of those things could happen, but three weeks into the 2019 season, the Browns hype train has hit a sheet of ice and is slowly skidding off the rails. They’ve been on primetime television twice in a little over a week (to the detriment of many of us), and all they have to show for it is an unconvincing win over the moribund New York Jets and a convincing (to how not very good the Browns are) defeat at home to the LA Rams. The loss to the Rams this past Sunday was especially brutal as they only scored 13 points and had the ball inside the Rams 5-yd line with all three timeouts remaining and needing a touchdown and extra-point conversion to send the game to overtime. Four inexplicable pass plays later, they took the loss. Now sitting at 1-2, they come into Baltimore, who are 2-1 and sit on top of the AFC North. Last week, the Ravens fell 33-28 (covering the spread, very important to note) at Kansas City. Moral victories are not counted in the NFL, however, and the Ravens were denied an early showcase win. That being said, not many teams this season, if any at all, are going to go into KC and come away with a victory, as they are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Now we get two heated division rivals (“rivals” is a bit of a misnomer as the Ravens aka former Browns have dominated this H2H [head-to-head] matchup since the Browns returned to the league in 1999; it’s not even close) playing each other in what is essentially a must-win game for both. The Browns don’t want to drop two full games behind Baltimore in the division, and Baltimore would love nothing more than to bury them four weeks into the season. Last year’s end of season matchup was a back and forth nailbiter and that saw the Ravens barely hold on for victory, and this one should be much of the same. The value play here is Home Team moneyline and Total Points Over 45.5 (+155).

New England Patriots (-375) @ Buffalo Bills (+285) o/u 42.5
In another early season division matchup, the Patriots, looking like world beaters again, roll into Buffalo undefeated and seemingly unbothered. Antonio Brown gone? No big deal. They just plug some random receiver in and keep on cruising. The ageless wonder Tom Brady continues to defy Father Time, making the defenses of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami Dolphins (not hard), and NY Jets (also not hard), look absolutely silly. It’s almost unfair that the Pats get to play these AFC East “rivals” (about as much as a rivalry as the one between a hammer and a nail) six times a year, but here we are. As unsurprisingly as it is to see the Patriots 3-0 heading into week four, seeing the Buffalo Bills also 3-0 couldn’t be more surprising. Led by second-year quarterback Josh Allen, the young Bills are looking like maybe they could be the ones to finally wrest away the AFC East from New England. Litmus tests don’t get any harder than the one they are facing here. Playing at home definitely falls in their favor as they will be playing in front of a frenzied crowd who will be at fever pitch well before kickoff. There hasn’t been a bigger home game in Buffalo in years, and the Bills will come out amped up. The value plays in this game are all in the first half as New England will try to hold the line versus Buffalo’s staunch swarming defense. The spread is New England -7 for the game, but Buffalo will keep this close early, at the least. Favorite play here is ​Buffalo Bills 1st Half moneyline (+195). ​If the New England go into Buffalo and come out with a convincing victory, then all hope is lost yet again for the other three teams in that division.

Minnesota Vikings (+107) @ Chicago Bears (-130) o/u 38
Last but not least, we have the Vikings heading into Chicago to play the Bears in one of the great and storied rivalries in the 100 years of the NFL. Both teams come into the game with 2-1 records, and both coming off very convincing victories in week three. The Vikings come in with another really good defense yet again, only to be matched by the Bears’ defense, which is great in its own right. This is going to be an absolute slugfest, and it’s hard to see the offensive playmakers on either side getting much room to maneuver. For the Vikings, running back Dalvin Cook and receivers Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, won’t see much space out there. As for the Bears, the same can be said for running back David Montgomery and wide receiver Allen Robinson II. The difference in the game will be which quarterback, Kirk Cousins or Mitch Trubisky, can be the difference. Both QBs have shown the propensity to be no-shows when it matters most, especially Cousins. For the Vikings to win, it is absolutely vital that their offensive line keeps Bears stud of a defensive end Khalil Mack off of him long enough for him to make throws. Saying that is a tall order is an understatement. In this tight, hotly contested matchup, we should see ​under 38 Total Points (-106). ​Also, ​Minnesota Vikings moneyline (+107)​ is a value play, but only for the daring.

This is arguably the best Sunday of the young NFL season so far; some absolute knockout matchups. Enjoy watching and good luck!

*Credit to the main photo of this article belongs to David Dermer/Associated Press