Tom Brady In A Wild Card Game? The Return Of JJ Watt? It's AFC Wild Card Saturday

The NFL’s postseason is now upon us with the start of NFL Wild Card weekend. All twelve teams in the postseason are 0-0, and there is zero room for error. It’s simple, really. Win and advance, lose and go home. This weekend gives us four games, two in each conference.

Here are some betting tips for Saturday's matchups with the current NFL lines, from the point spreads, to the over/unders, and the prop bets.

Buffalo Bills (+120) @ Houston Texans (-148) 

o/u 43.5 (-110), Texans -2.5 (-117)

This is the first meeting between the two. The Bills enter this game as the #5-seed and the Texans are the AFC South division winners. The Bills chances in this game rely on two things: their stout defense and the play of their 2nd-year quarterback Josh Allen.

The Bills defense on the surface is one of the best in the league statistically, but taking a deeper look we see that their defense got fat off of some of the weaker offensive units in the league. 11 of their 16 opponents this season were 21st or worse in yards per play. Yes, you still have to perform no matter who you play, but the Bills played a weak schedule, no way around it.

This is Allen’s first playoff game as well, on the road no less, and history hasn’t always been kind to first-time playoff QBs. The Texans defense isn’t a strength to say the least, they could be exposed by Allen, but all-everything defensive end J.J. Watt will be returning from injury so they will get a boost from that. The Bills are the worst offense in these playoffs, full stop.

On the other side, the Texans are hoping to bounceback from last year’s egg of a playoff performance, a 21-7 home loss vs. the Indianapolis Colts. Offense is the name of the game for Houston, and their attack is led by quarterback Deshaun Watson and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. The Texans were 11th in yards per play, so expect Houston to throw the ball a bunch (the 10th-pass-heaviest offense over the last 8 weeks of the season) in what should be a hotly contested match.

Even with all their weapons on offense (including unsung wide receiver Will Fuller), the Texans have had trouble scoring actual points this season, particularly in the first half. Look for Buffalo to keep this game close. The value plays here are ​Total Points Under 43.5 (-110), Texans -2.5 (-117), Home Team moneyline and Under 43.5 (+220). ​The Bills will have to throw the ball in this game, so we love the prop bet ​Josh Allen over 219.5 Yards Passing (-112).

Tennessee Titans (+185) @ New England Patriots (-230)

 o/u 44.5 (-110), Patriots -5 (-110)

Yes, you read that right. The New England Patriots are playing a football game on Wild Card weekend. It’s almost like seeing Halley’s Comet, as the last time New England didn’t have a bye week in the postseason was the 2009-10(!) NFL season. One wonders if they might need to set a reminder on their phones that they have to play this weekend. Kidding aside, because the Patriots inexplicably didn’t show up vs. Miami in the final regular season game of the year, they look particularly vulnerable against the confident Titans.

But rumors of the Patriots demise have been greatly exaggerated, at least for this game. The Titans are definitely a hot team, going 7-3 in their final 10 games of the season. But those seven victories include five wins vs teams with losing records (and who ranked 14th or worse in scoring defense), a win vs Houston’s “B” team last week, and a credible win vs the Chiefs (but even that was at home and marred by Andy Reid’s odd time management).

All this to say, we may be looking at fool’s gold with Tennessee. They have what it takes to beat lesser teams, but this is a step up in class having to go into Foxborough on a Saturday night to play the reigning champs, who will be in a bitter mood to say the least after that loss to the Dolphins last week. The Pats are 20-3 at home in the postseason under Tom Brady and Bill Belechick, including wins in the last nine; they’ve covered the spread in five of the past six.

This is also Titans QB Ryan Tannehill’s first ever playoff game and is 0-6 at Foxborough (from his days as Dolphins QB), losing by an average of 22 points. To make things even worse for the Titans, the Patriots under Belichick are 11-0 vs quarterbacks making their first postseason start. Even with the league’s leading rusher in Derrick Henry, it will be a long night for Tennessee.

The plays here are ​Patriots -5 (-110), Patriots moneyline and Total Points over 44.5 (+175), and Total Points over 44.5 (-110). ​We also like the prop bets ​Ryan Tannehill under 224.5 yards passing (-112) and James White First Touchdown Scorer (+950).

*Credit to the main photo of this article belongs to Charles Krupa/Associated Press (Brady), James Kenney/Associated Press (Hopkins), Michael Wyke (Henry)