Chelsea-Liverpool, Leicester-Tottenham Top A Huge Weekend of EPL Action

It’s been quite an exciting week for soccer fans around the globe as the group stage began in both the Champions and Europa Leagues, respectively. Several EPL clubs were invited to the proceedings and performed to varying levels of success, but they will have no time to rest on their laurels as league action continues through the weekend.

Certainly one wonders if top-of-the-table clubs like Liverpool, Man City, Spurs, and Man United will be negatively affected by the extra work they’ve all had this week, or will they all come into their weekend fixtures loose, game-ready, and just a step ahead of their opponents? Let’s take a look at all four of their matchups and look for some value in each.

Leicester City (+190) vs Tottenham (+143), Draw (+250)
The last we saw of Leicester in league play, they couldn’t find their way to the Man United goal even if they were given a road map. In a very pedestrian performance, they fell at Old Trafford 1-nil. This is out of the ordinary for the Foxes this season as they’ve scored at least one goal in every 2019-20 league fixture before then. The silver lining in this cloud of a defeat is that Leicester has still yet to concede more than a single goal in any of their six competitive matches this year (includes the 2-1 win over Newcastle in the EPL Cup). So yes, they are a stingy team. Spurs are coming off a 2-2 draw to Olympiakos on Wednesday in Champions League play. Tottenham jumped out to a 2-nil lead, only to last year’s Greece Super League runner-ups come storming back to steal a draw at home. This was the second time this season that Spurs took home a draw after jumping out to a two goal lead. However, Tottenham have won four of the last five league matches vs Leicester, with three of those five matches hitting at least four total goals. When these two clubs get together, more often than not we see goals scored. The safe value play here is​ over 2.5 goals (-132)​. But what’s fun about safe? ​Away Team to Win and Both Teams to Score (+335)​ is our money play here. If you’re really feeling frisky, ​Both Teams to Score in Both Halves Yes (+1050)​ is a banger of a play.

Manchester City (-910) vs Watford (+2400), Draw (+850)
When last we saw second-place Man City in league play, they were victims of an absolutely shocking defeat at the hands of just-promoted Norwich, by a score of 3-2. Not even Nostradamus could have seen that coming. To say that Watford is the perfect opponent at the perfect time is an understatement. In their last eleven head-to-head matches, City have won all of them, while scoring a total of 38 goals (nine of those eleven wins have been by at least a two-goal margin). City are dominant at home, as well, winning ten of their last eleven league matches in Etihad Stadium. Watford is currently at the bottom of the EPL with just two points, and they’ve only scored four goals this season. If you’re looking for anything that says they have any chance whatsoever of pulling off this upset, you can look to the fact that they have only conceded two goals on the road this year (nevermind that they were vs Everton and Newcastle). This should be a decisive victory for City as the Norwich defeat has taught them not to take any team lightly. With that, there is nothing of value in the moneyline, but there are two prop bets that have my attention: ​First Goal Scored, Sergio Aguero (+270)​ and ​Home Team To Be Awarded A Penalty Yes (+200).​ When you have a mismatch such as this one, the prop bets hold all the value.

West Ham (+240) vs Manchester United (+112), Draw (+265)
With a victory vs Man United on Sunday, West Ham could see themselves right up in the top-4 of the league. Playing in front of what is sure to be a raucous crowd, as well as underdogs, all could be incentive enough to come out firing on all cylinders. In their last five competitive matches, the ‘Hammers’ are 3-0-2, playing very solid if not spectacular football with eight goals scored in those fixtures. Their last three matches have been under 2.5 goals (none of them saw both teams scoring); even though they aren’t scoring in bunches, they aren’t conceding as well. In come the favorites Manchester United. The “favorites” tag is one that should cause concern for Red Devils fans around the world as they are winless in their last five EPL away matches when favored, going 0-2-3. Both teams did score in four of those matches, however. The last time United won a league match away from Old Trafford was at the end of February. Road warriors they are not, as they seem to go cold on the road; both away matches in the league so far this season have seen 1-1 draws. United’s last two appearances at West Ham have seen them net a total of one goal while going 0-1-1. There are a few value plays here. ​West Ham moneyline (+240)​ is a great play here. ​A draw (+265)​ is another. And our favorite prop play for this match? ​Red Card given Yes (+480).​ In West Ham’s last league fixture, they were shown a red--their 22nd red card since returning to the EPL in 2012-13. That’s the second most of any team in the league. Why not throw a dart at that one?

Chelsea (+280) vs Liverpool (-104), Draw (+275)
Though this match has lost a bit of its luster from its heyday of ten to fifteen years ago, it’s still the marquee fixture of the weekend. Both teams are coming off of Champion League defeats (Chelsea to Valencia, Liverpool to Napoli) earlier in the week, but hope to continue their run of good form in the league. Chelsea have seemed to right the ship after a bit of a rough start. They aren’t lighting the league on fire by any means, but they’re 2-0-2 in their last four EPL matches, including netting five goals vs Wolves in their last league match. You can expect goals when Chelsea is playing in a league fixture this season, as each of their league matches have averaged 4.4 goals, with both teams scoring in the last four of those five matches. The buzzsaw to all of that is Liverpool, as only two of the last eight matches between these two sides have tallied more than two total goals. With Liverpool, saying that they are in “good” form doesn’t quite do them justice. Their defense is stout, having given up less than a goal per game on average, and their offense is flying, averaging three goals a game over their first five matches. They haven’t lost yet this season, and their win streak extends 14 games going back to March 2019. They have only won two of their last seven fixtures at Stamford Bridge, however. Our favorite play for this game is ​Away Team to Win Both Halves Yes (+480).​ Liverpool have only last ONE half straight up all season and it was in the second half to Norwich--after already being ahead 4-nil before halftime they conceded a second half goal. ​Away Team to Score in Both Halves Yes (+163) ​is also a great value play. Last but not least, a couple of player props: ​Olivier Giroud to Score (+230)​ and ​Mohamed Salah First Goal Scorer (+440).

Those are some of our favorite plays in what should be a very entertaining weekend of EPL football. Good luck to you all!

*Credit to the main photo of this article belongs to Alastair Grant/Associated Press