Can Nadal Earn His 4th U.S. Open Title Against Up And Coming Medvedev?

 

And then there were two!

Quite easily in fact. Both Rafael Nadal and Danill Medvedev cruised into the U.S. Open Final on Sunday with straight set wins against lesser opponents on Friday, setting up what should be an amazing match on Sunday afternoon. Both Nadal and Medvedev had to overcome tight first sets, but for Nadal, he looked at the top of his game against a clearly overmatched Matteo Berrittini, while Medvedev had a little more work to do, but eventually crushed the spirit of the much more equally matched Gregor Dimitrov. Neither suffered any injuries, so we head into Sunday looking how they match up on equal grounds. So...

 

The Final

No. 2 Rafael Nadal (-715) vs No. 5 Danill Medvedev (+550)

This will be Medvedev's first Grand Slam final. Nadal will be in his 27th. In fact, his appearance in Friday's semis meant he had made it to the semis in every major tournament this year (he lost in the Australian final to Djokovic, won the French and lost in the semis to Federer at Wimbledon.) So clearly, this will be old guard versus new. 

Medvedev has been solid all year, and his win on Friday gave him a tour-leading 50 wins for the year. He's the first Russian to make the U.S. Open Final since 2000, when Martat Safin took home the title. And if he pulls off the upset, he'll be the first player outside the Big Three to win a Grand Slam title since the 2016 U.S. Open when Stan Wawrinka stunned Novak Djokovic in the final. (That's 11 straight Grand Slams if you're counting.) 

Meanwhile, Nadal will be looking to earn his 19th Grand Slam title, putting him one behind Roger Federer. At age 33 (Federer is 38) it looks likely that he'll eventually pass him, but this match will pose a stiff challenge to getting that one step closer.

Even while earning the wrath of the crowd for his ofttimes boorish behavior, Medvedev has played some amazing tennis, adjusting from being offensive to defensive minded depending on the style of his challengers. His chameleon-like play forces his opponents into unforced errors and overthinking, leaving the Russian to pick up the pieces and advance.

Nadal is, well, Nadal. Powerful on seemingly every shot, passionate yet laser-focused. And despite the age difference between the two (Medvedev is 23 to Nadal's 33) Nadal is as fit as ever, and has had to overcome a much stronger set of opponents than his fellow finalist, playing against three top-25 seeded players versus Medvedev's single match against 23rd ranked Stan Wawrinka. 

Nadal is the heavy favorite, but Medvedev is worth taking a flyer on, especially at the odds he's given. The Big Three looks like it may need to open its doors to a new member.

 

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Well, that was interesting!

 

The Big Three has been reduced to the Big One, and all bets are off. (Actually, all bets are on…Nadal.) While we would have loved to see Kyrgios keep his focus (we probably won’t see him at all for a while after his comments about the ATP) and watch Federer go for title #6, and Djokovic go for a third Grand Slam in 2019, we’ve got a an exciting final four and perhaps a glimpse at life beyoung The Big Three. So how do they stack

up? Let’s look:

 

Semi-final #1

Gregor Dimitrov (+150) vs #5 Danill Medvedev (-182)

The more evenly matched of the semis is this great pairing of Medvedev, the bad boy of the US Open, versus the upstart Dimitrov, who pulled the upset of his career with his defeat of Federer in the quarters. 

We liked Medvedev before the tournament began, pegging him as a potential threat to the reign of the Big Three. His pre-U.S. Open form had been great, including an upset of Djokovic in the Canadian Open. But the questions we had are even more valid now that he’s made it deeper into the tourney. Will his health become a factor? He’s played more hardcourt matches this summer than all the other top 4 seeded player combined. He already looks beat up, taped up all over his legs, and he admitted he was on the verge of retiring in his quarterfinal matchup with Wawrinka. His success on the hardcourt has come mostly in 3 set matches as well, so will the grind of these extended matches wear on him? He’s almost at the finish line. As he said, all the boos keep him going. They’re will be plenty more so who knows.

 

Dimitrov on the other hand must still be glowing after his surprise defeat of Federer in the quarters. Can he get his head out of the clouds quick enough to take on an admittedly weakened opponent? He’ll face a similar foe in Medvedev, in that the longer he can extend every point, every set, every match, the more chance he has to pull another upset. His biggest asset is his steadiness, so if he can win one of the first two sets, watch out.

 

This will be a close one. Medvedev looks weakened, but he’s got momentum and that extra special relationship with the crowd. Look for the boos to take him to the final.

 

 

Semi-final #2

 

#2 Rafael Nadal (-1667) vs Matteo Berrittini (+1050)

The last of the Big Three standing of course has the best odds to make it through. It doesn’t hurt that he’s been quietly playing great tennis throughout the tournament, never being taken to a 5^th set, and never really being challenged in any match. His bracket-mates weren’t the most challenging, but we could have said the same for Federer. It’s about showing up for every match, no matter their ranking, and that’s exactly what Nadal has done.

 

He’ll come into the semis as yet another huge favorite against the surprising semifinalist Berrittini, who outlasted Gael Monfils in the quarters to make it to his very first Grand Slam semifinals. And what a gift he gets for getting here. While we won’t expect Berrittini to simply put on a good face and wait for his post-loss photo op with Nadal, he’s up against not just a legend, but one who is also playing great tennis. Berrittini had a hard enough time closing out Monfils, who came back in the 5^th set down 5-2 to force a tie-breaker. That won’t work against Nadal. 

 

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It sometimes feels like we should just copy and paste the previews from previous Grand Slam tournaments whenever a new one begins as, at least for the men’s bracket, the path to the finals is incredibly consistent, albeit with small discrepancies depending on the playing surface. It goes a little something like this:

 

Nadal, Federer and Djokovic all cruise to the semis, usually with one of them providing a bit of a scare in one of the early rounds, and then we look to see if maybe, just maybe, that fourth guy might have a chance to pull an upset (he usually doesn’t) and then we try and deduce which of the two of the Big Three who survived will win the tournament. 

Since we’re starting our preview a day into the 2019 U.S. Open, we can proudly say that maybe we’ve already had our Big Three “scare” when Roger Federer lost his first set to 190^th ranked qualifier Sumit Nagal, but that everyone else is on track. So that being said, let’s look at some of the big names (again) as well as some of the possible surprises. (NOTE: A few of the possible surprises we had in mind, especially some of the Americans who we thought would feed off some of the energy of a home crowd, were routinely eliminated in Round One. Thanks a lot Taylor Fritz and Jack Sock, as well as you, Fabio Fognini.)

 

Novak Djokovic (+110 to win)

The three-time winner and defending champion, Djokovic enters the tournament as the favorite, having won it three times over the past 8 years. He’s already won the Australian Open and Wimbledon this year, and, despite a loss in the Canadian Open semifinals, he’s looked unstoppable throughout the season.

 

Rafael Nadal (+300 to win, +225 runner-up, +475 eliminated in semis)

Pros: 

• He’s Nadal
• He won his 18^th Grand Slam at this year’s French Open.
• He just won the Canadian Open in straight sets over the same Danill Medvedev who had beaten Djokovic in the semis.
• He’s won the U.S. Open 3 times before, including the title two years ago in 2017.

Cons:

• Djokovic has also won the U.S. Open 3 times.
• Federer has won it 5 times.
• I mean, he’s not getting any younger.

Roger Federer (+700 to win)

They said he was showing his age at the start of Wimbledon, but then he made it to the final. They said he’d get overwhelmed by Djokovic in the Final, but then he made the Serb work for it to the tune of the longest men’s final in the history of Wimbledon. Now they say that he may be showing his age here in Queens. (Whispers that will only grow stronger after losing that first set in the first round.) What does Federer have in store for us this year? Is it U.S. Open title #6? 

 

Danill Medvedev (+1300 to win)

Maybe it was because those putting the draw together enjoyed his upset win against Djokovic in the Canadian Open, but they’ve gone and set him on course to have a rematch in the quarters of the U.S. Open as well. Medvedev has been in great form, and if he pulls off another upset here against Djokovic, we’ll start to hear rumblings of a new contender to the Big Three. His only downside is that he hasn’t show that he can sustain the momentum needed in a 5 set match. (The Canadian is only 3.)

 

Alexander Zverev (+3300 to win)

Whenever we write about Grand Slams, there’s always a belief that this is the one where Zverev puts it all together and he asserts himself as the next big thing in men’s tennis. That still hasn’t happened. He has a pretty decent path to the quarters, with the only true test coming in Karen Khachnov (+5000 to win), who has been on a roll as of late. 

 

Dominic Thiem (+3300 to win)

Turns out the hardest quarter grouping is the one without any of the Big Three. The fourth seed Thiem will have to overcome a group that contains huge threats like Stephanos Tsitsipas (+4000 to win), Gael Monfils (+20000), Roberto Bautista Agut (+5000 to win), Andrey Rublev ( +15000), and the guy below. Whoever makes it out of this group will come out either hardened and ready to take on the Big Three, or so exhausted that they’ll be sitting ducks come the semis.

 

Nick Kyrgios(+5000 to win, +1400 eliminated in semis, +650 eliminated in quarters)

I mean, he’s got to keep it together one of these days, right? There have been recent flashes of stability, but just as many flashes of the usual instability, so who knows? It’s always a crazy ride. The group he’s in is a tough one, but if he stays focused, it’s his for the taking.

 

Stan Wawrinka (+5000 to win)

While his current ATP ranking of 281 doesn’t make him too attractive-looking a bet, the 2016 champion looks to reassert himself on the main stage. He’s seeded 22^ndso there is still some belief that he can find himself again in Queens. 

 

Have a fun few weeks watching and betting and we'll update the odds and preview as the tournament rolls along!

 

*Credit to the main photo of this article belongs to AP Photo/Adam Hunger