NBA Western Conference First Round Betting Preview

Every April in the NBA, it’s a popular thing to say “It’s the playoffs! Anything can happen!” 

While that may seem like it’s an encouraging slogan for all those 7^thand 8^thseeds to make them feel better, there’s some truth in the belief that whatever happened in the previous 6 months doesn’t matter. 

Mediocre teams get hot. 

Great teams get mired in slumps.

Defense matters more.

James Harden-like numbers matter less.

Today’s task: one game into each series, let’s look at the Western Conference First Round, break down whether what happened in the regular season actually matters in the playoffs, and figure out how all that should influence what you might be betting on.

(1) Golden State Warriors/(8) Los Angeles Clippers

And if it’s the West, you have to start with the Warriors.

They should be up 2-0 in their series with the Clippers, who still look like they’re one big-time player away from ever being a threat. But something strange happened on the path to the Finals.

For the first 6 and a half quarters of the series, the Warriors seemed to be hitting on all cylinders, with Curry dropping threes, and Durant hitting from anywhere. But then poor Boogie Cousins got hurt in his first playoff season ever, and the Clippers caught fire. We're a little worried, but betting the Warriors still feels safe, and that’s how the oddsmakers see it as well. You’re not going to win much, but they’re still fun to watch as you count your cash.

(2) Denver Nuggets/ (7) San Antonio Spurs

It still seems strange to call the Nuggets a two seed, and after the first game against the Spurs, it feels like this is one of those “Anything can happen” series. Why? Because of another saying: “Experience matters.” While the Nuggets are making their first playoff appearance in 6 years, the Spurs are in for, wait for it, the 22^ndconsecutive season! Coach Pop knows what it takes to not only make it to the playoffs, but how to win once you’re there. Even though Denver pulled out the 2nd game in the second half, remember this: if it goes the full series, the Spurs have won 7 of their last 12 games at Denver. You can see why the betting odds on this series are so slim. 

(3) Portland Trailblazers/ (6) Oklahoma City Thunder

No disrespect to Portland, but doesn’t it feel like the seeds in their series against the Thunder should be reversed? Alas, Portland quietly was one of the strongest, most well-rounded teams in the league this year, while we saw from their two losses in this series already, OK City always have trouble if one, or, God help them, both of their big two aren’t in All-Star form. Both home arenas are legitimate factors for every game, so look for this series to go the distance. It’s not only a great series to watch, it’s also a great series to bet on, as the lines are made for tight games, and big winnings.

(4) Houston Rockets/ (5) Utah Jazz

Did you see what we saw in the first game of this series? The Houston Rockets…playing defense? It must’ve been a dream, right? But no, there they were, not only scoring a ton as always, but holding an explosive Jazz offense to 90 points. (OK, OK, they’ve been playing great D for a few months now, but still.) The thing that’s scariest about the Rockets right now, though, is that James Harden has learned to pass as well, with all 5 Rockets starters ending up in double figures in Game One. If the Rockets can keep up the well-rounded game, those tantalizingly low odds on them reaching the Finals looks very appealing.

Of course, everything you just read might be completely off base. Because, you know, it’s the playoffs. Anything can happen!