Alabama and LSU Battle For The #1 CFB Playoff Spot, While Penn State Looks To Stay In The Top Four

Week 11 of the college football season is here and finally we get what college football fans have been asking for all season: games with real stakes, including a “Game of the Century” to boot. The first College Football Playoff rankings of the 2019 season have been released and three of the four teams that are in the playoff if everything ended today, will have huge games that will go a long way in deciding their respective fates; two of those three teams will be playing each other on Saturday.

Let’s take a look at three of week 11’s biggest matchups between ranked opponents.

#18 Iowa Hawkeyes (+255) @ #13 Wisconsin Badgers (-360), o/u 38 (-114)

Both of these teams are well-rested coming into this game as they both had bye weeks last week. Iowa has won two in a row while Wisconsin has lost two in a row, beginning with the awful loss to Illinois three weeks ago. Both of these teams are out of any sort of CFP running, that’s for sure, but they both sit two full games behind undefeated Minnesota and each of them still have a game vs. Minnesota left on the schedule. They both know with a victory in this game and a victory over Minnesota, plus a little help from the likes of Penn State, they have a chance to win the Big Ten West Division and get themselves a place in the Big Ten championship game. All of that to say this is a big game for both. This game will come down to Iowa’s elite defense (especially run defense) vs. elite running back Jonathan Taylor. Wisconsin also has an elite defense of their own so look for this one to be a low-scoring affair. ​Under 38 Total Points (-114) ​holds some value, but we really like ​Home Team and under 38.5 Total Points (+138).

#4 Penn State Nittany Lions (-250) @ #17 Minnesota Golden Gophers (+190), o/u 48 (-114)

This is the biggest Big Ten game of the year, and arguably the biggest November game for Minnesota in about 60 years. Both teams are undefeated but only one gets the respect an undefeated team in a Power 5 conference gets (Penn State), while the other undefeated team has two 2-loss teams above them in the rankings; the Minnesota coaches will pound the disrespect angle into their players all week. Penn State at least has been somewhat battle-tested as they’ve played Iowa and Michigan, two ranked but somewhat overrated teams. Both victories were very close and at home, so take into consideration that the Nittany Lions weren’t too impressive versus either. They do bring with them an elite defense and an offense that usually does just enough. Minnesota hasn’t seen anything like what the Penn State defense will bring on Saturday, as the Golden Gophers have had one of the softest schedules in the country, barely beating teams like South Dakota State and Georgia Southern. When the best teams you’ve played this year are Illinois, Nebraska, and Purdue, then that undefeated record just seems a bit suspect. Look for this game to be close early, but Penn State will pull away late. They are simply the better team. We like ​Away Team moneyline and Under 48.5 Total Points (+170) ​as the value play here.

#1 LSU Tigers (+185) @ #2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-245), o/u 64 (-114)

This is the game that college football fans have been seemingly waiting for the entire season. Week after week there’s a couple of nice games, sure, but mostly there have been mediocre matchups at best. Now we get a legitimate entry in the “Game of the Century” annals,something that used to be way more common in college football. This game is being seriously hyped up, and deservedly so. The two best offenses in the country. The two best (arguably) quarterbacks in the country (if Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa plays--he’s the dreaded game-time decision). Two great defenses with players all over the place that will be playing on Sundays in the next couple of years. This game has it all, and has “instant classic” written all over it, with both teams having two weeks to prepare for this monumental matchup. If Bama has to go with backup QB Mac Jones, they won’t lose that much in quality as Jones will have an elite receiving corps as well as elite running backs to keep the offense running smoothly. He was efficient and impressive a couple of weeks ago filling in for Tua vs. Arkansas. On the flipside, the Bama defense by any other standards, is a good one, but by their standard of yearly excellence, it doesn’t quite measure up. Some of that is deceiving however as they’re usually winning by so much that they give up a lot of passing yards as teams just throw and throw against soft zone coverage. All of that being said, Bama has not played anyone nearly as good as LSU, a team with elite talent at quarterback and wide receiver. Bama’s schedule has been, dare we say, soft, compared to LSU’s. The Tigers have played two of the best defenses in the country in Auburn and Florida in top-10 ranked vs. games, and quarterback Joe Burrow passed those tests with flying colors. There’s so much at stake here in this clash, with the winner almost guaranteeing themselves a spot in the CFP while the loser remains alive for a spot but will need help to get in (for what it’s worth, though the AP poll has them 1-2, the newly-released CFP poll has LSU #2 and Bama #3). The home crowd may be the difference here, but we just can’t avoid the value of LSU moneyline (+185). ​They’re the #1 team in the nation and they’re getting that? Run, don’t walk for a piece of that value. We also like the value of ​Away Team +6.5 and Under 64.5 Total Points (+230).

This will easily be the best weekend of college football this season, with one of the biggest regular season games in years. Enjoy watching, and good luck!

*Credit to the main photo of this article belongs to Vasha Hunt/Associated Press