The NFL Final Four: Who Will Win The AFC and NFC Conference Championships?

Conference Championship Weekend (yes, it deserves to be capitalized) is finally here and we have two very interesting tilts on deck. Both home teams are prohibitive favorites, but the underdogs won’t be pushovers. Will the Titans be giant-killers for a third weekend in a row, or will they be just a minor roadblock for the vaunted Chiefs offense? Will the Packers actually show up this time in their rematch versus the 49ers, or will the Niners once again crush them like they did earlier in the season? With a Super Bowl appearance standing just one win away, all four of these teams will be putting it all on the line in order to get to Miami.

Let’s take a closer look at both of these matchups, the NFL lines, and hopefully find some winning plays.

Tennessee Titans (+280) @ Kansas City Chiefs (-375)

o/u 52.5 (-110), Chiefs -7.5 (-103)

In taking out the mighty Ravens last week, the Titans game plan was exactly what we said here it would be. The defense had to neutralize Lamar Jackson and the offense had to get more production from quarterback Ryan Tannehill and continue to get production from running back Derrick Henry. All of the above happened, and then some. The Ravens took a loss that they may never recover from. Enough about them.

This game is a rematch of their week 10 affair at Tennessee where Henry had a monster game, rushing for 188 yards on 23 carries, and scored two touchdowns. Expect to see another heavy dose of Henry on those outside zone runs, but even if the Titans run Henry a ton and control the tempo, the Chiefs offense will still get the ball eight or nine times, so the Titans ​will h​ave to score, and by score I mean touchdowns. Tannehill will have to make big plays downfield with his arm, and that means utilizing the play-action like he did so well vs. Baltimore, as KC will be geared up to stop the run.

On defense they will try to disguise their coverage pre-snap, since showing Patrick Mahomes that you’re going to play man-coverage before the snap is a recipe for disaster. They definitely have to get someone to cover tight end Travis Kelce, who went off last week vs. Houston.

When the Chiefs have the ball, Mahomes will have to make split-second reactions as the Titans defense be looking to blitz; the key for them will be picking up the pressure, which will allow Mahomes more time to find open spaces in the coverage. It’s a good thing he’s already seen what the Titans do. Sure there’ll be some new tweaks, but there’s only so much you can change a couple months later.

On defense, expect KC to bring a lot of blitzes, but not the passing kind. They will load up on the run-blitz, taking it to Henry instead of just waiting for him to run all over them on those outside zone runs. Should be a great chess match.

Favorite bets:

• Home Team and Over 52.5 (+155)
• Chiefs -7.5 (-103)
• Patrick Mahomes To Score Touchdown (+500)

Green Bay Packers (+265) @ San Francisco 49ers (-335)

o/u 46.5 (-110), 49ers -7.5 (-110)

This one is another rematch between teams that met earlier in the regular season. These two met in week 12, and the Niners cruised to a 37-8 victory. There’s much more on the line here. The Packers know that they will have to do almost everything differently this time around if they want to pull the upset. They know this time around that they have to keep Aaron Rodgers upright, first and foremost. The 49ers love to play zone, letting their elite front four rush the quarterback while dropping everyone else back into zone, leaving very small windows for opposing quarterbacks. Obviously, Aaron Rodgers isn’t just any quarterback. He will look for wide receiver Davante Adams and tight end Jimmy Graham on deep crosses down the middle of the field to combat the Niners zone.

On defense the Packers will have to take away the play-action passing of Jimmy Garoppolo; they got torched by it all game in week 12. Niners coach Kyle Shanahan will be looking to establish the run game to open up the play-action. From there, Jimmy G will look to live “between the numbers” i.e. middle-of-the-field passes between the 40-yard lines. That’s where tight end George Kittle flourishes, along with wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders.

On defense, the Niners will do what was mentioned above. Rush four down linemen, but will do so using all kinds of stunts and alignments in order to exploit matchups, and with Nick Bosa, DeForest Buckner, Arik Armstead, and Dee Ford all rushing the quarterback, usually they have the advantage in most matchups.Their other seven defenders can just sit back and play their base coverage. It will take Rodgers’ best effort to neutralize this.

Favorite bets:

• Away Team +7.5 and Over 46.5 Total Points (+270) Packers +7.5 (-110)
• Davante Adams First Touchdown (+1000)
• George Kittle Over 6.5 Receptions (+135)
• Aaron Jones Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-121)

This should be two great rematches, and two great games to watch. Enjoy this football feast, and good luck!

*Credit to the main photo of this article belongs to Mike Roemer/Associated Press (Rodgers), File/Associated Press (Mahomes/Henry), Mark Zaleski/Associated Press (Hill)