The Big Three and The Other Guy: Business As Usual In The Wimbledon Men’s Semis

Just so we know what we’re dealing with here, a quick recap of just how great “The Big Three” truly are.

• Roger Federer: 20 Grand Slam titles, 30 Grand Glam finals.
• Rafael Nadal: 18 Grand Slam titles, 26 Grand Glam finals.
• Novak Djokovic: 15 Grand Slam titles, 24 Grand Glam finals.

Oh, and just to be equal in our coverage:

• Roberto Bautista-Agut: 0 Grand Slam titles, 0 Grand Glam finals.

It almost feels like a given any time a Grand Slam tournament comes around to have these three in the semis. (They have won the last 10 Grand Slam titles between them over the past 2 and a half years.) And while we wait for the next generation of men’s players to stake their claim, or one of these three to start showing their age, we can bask in the extraordinary talent we’ve come to take for granted in the past 15 years. 

But here we are, once again, and this time, it is Federer/Nadal, with Djokovic getting the task of playing “other guy.” Let’s break down the match-ups and how we can bet on them.

Fderer/Nadal

Some history between these two:

• Coming into their 40^th meeting, Nadal leads the overall series, 24-15. 
• Recent matches include an easy Nadal win in the 2019 French Open semis, 6-3, 6-4, 6-2.
• Don’t take too much from that, as Nadal is the master of the clay courts and Federer had actually won the previous 5 matches between them.
• The last time these two met at Wimbledon was 2008, when they played what many consider to be the best men’s singles match in the history of the game. After a two-year run as Wimbledon champ by Federer, Nadal outlasted him 6-4, 6-4, 6-7 (5), 9-7. 
• Federer has won 8 Wimbledon titles. Nadal has 2.
• Nadal has reached the finals in 6 of his last 10 Grand Slam tourneys. Federer has reached the finals in 3 of his last 10 Grand Slam tourneys, but none in the past 5.

Maybe it’s his age, maybe it’s his longer matches so far in this tournament, but Federer comes into this match the slight underdog at +120, to Nadal’s -148. The miniscule margins on most of the betting lines make it hard to make any serious money on this match, but dig deeper and there are some options.

• Think it’ll be epic and go 5 sets? The Total Sets over 4.5 is at +215.
• Think one will dominate the other and sweep sets? Set Spread with Federer at +2.5 is +550, while Nadal sweeping is at +340.
• In a similar vein, choose Set Betting to pick the exact set score. Both 3-0 Federer and 3-2 Federer are at a nice +550.

Djokovic/Bautista-Agut

When we say, don’t count out the underdog, we’re not just trying to be nice. While the Spanish player isn’t necessarily a household name, he is still the 22^nd raked player in the world, and he has some very recent history of success against the number 1 player in the world.

• In the 2019 Qatar Open, after beating Stan Wawrinka in the quarters, Bautista-Agut defeated Djokovic in the semis, before going on to win the tourney with a win over Thomas Berdych.
• At the 2019 Miami Master, Bautista-Agut beat Djokovic yet again, 1-6, 7-5, 6-3, in the fourth round. (He lost in the quarters to eventual runner-up John Isner.)
• Djokovic still leads their career match-ups 7-3, but Bautista-Agut has won the past two.

Despite this glimmer of hope, Djokovic is still the overwhelming favorite at -1115 to Bautista-Agut’s +700. However, with the oddsmakers belief in Djokovic to manhandle his opponent, there come opportunities for you to make some money if Bautista-Agut can show the fight that he has in his last few matches against the Serbian. 

• In Set Betting, if Bautista-Agut can take a set you get odds of +275. Two sets? That’s a nice +700.
• All the choices in Pick the Correct Score in Set can win you a decent amount. The lowest with Djokovic winning is a healthy +380 for a 6-3 first set win, up to +3500 if you think Djokovic will truly dominate from the start and take the set 6-0.

Or you can just bet it all on Bautista-Agut to win and retire early.

Nonetheless, it’ll be an amazing day of tennis tomorrow in England. Good luck!