Not So Fast: Should The Warriors Be Worried Out West?

Do you remember the good old days when we could set our calendars for late May and show up to find the Warriors waiting for us (and whoever emerged from the much that was the Eastern Conference) in the NBA Finals? It actually seemed like we were destined for another date with destiny at the beginning of the playoffs, but then something strange happened: The Warriors looked mortal.

Players got injured.

Curry missed shots.

They…wait for it…LOST!

To the Clippers no less.

So is this just a blip on the otherwise regular schedule of the Warriors making it to the Finals? Or is something else going on here that might be a boon to people NOT wagering on Golden State? Let’s look the state of both semifinal matchups and see if we can find out where the good money lies.

Golden State-Houston

We went into this match-up believing it should really be the Western Finals. Two old rivals duking it out in another grueling series. And, despite all the complaining about the referees in Game One, it lived up to expectations. A narrow four point win for the W’s, with Durant and Harden going toe-to-toe, each pouring in 35, while Golden State’s supporting cast (wait, did we just say Steph Curry is a supporting player???) outplayed their counterparts to give the hosts the win. Game Two was another close win for the Warriors, but all we could talk about afterwards was eyes and fingers, namely Harden’s and Curry’s. Both seem to be healed but will either injury end up being a deciding factor as the series heads to Houston? Some betting thoughts:

• The Warriors (-670) are still favored to winthe series over Houston (+500)despite the Rockets (-175) being favored to win Game 3. 
• Oddsmakers only think Houston will win one game (+180) with good odds for bet makers on the Rockets extending the series to 4-2 (+425) or 4-3 (+400.)Considering the Harden and Co beat the Warriors three out of four times this season, that feels like a pretty god bet to take.

Denver-Portland

Is Rip City finally for real? In Game Two it sure looked like it. From the box score it didn’t look there was any way they could’ve won, with Lillard having by far his worst game of the post-season (14 pts on 17 shots, only 4 assists to three TOs.) But what sets the Blazers apart from so many teams both in the league, and in the playoffs, is that they are, at their core, just that: a team. When Lillard has an off night like he did Wednesday, there are others there to pick up the slack, namely C.J. McCollum. When teams decide to double or triple team the Blazers star, there’s other people who step in without hesitation, be it hitting clutch shots (Rodney Hood) playing stout D on Nikola Jokic (Zach Collins) or being an overall menace on both side of the court (the resurgent “Oh my God, I’m so glad I’m not on the Knicks anymore” Enes Kanter.)

The Nuggets, on the other hand, need to apply the same adjustments the Blazers did in the rest of the series if they’re going to continue into the Conference Finals. Jokic has proven to be the same stud he was in the regular season, and they had everyone contributing in the Game One win. But Game Two was worrisome. Everyone was cold from the field. (How cold? 34.7% cold!) And Jokic’s willingness to pass out of the post to get others a shot, they need to hit them, In Game Two, they just didn’t. So what are oddsmakers seeing in this tied-up series?

• With their Game Two win, Portland (-134) is now the favorite to win the series over the Nuggets (+110),with the Blazers favored to win tonight’s game (-186.)
• Despite how good both teams have looked in their previous series, and in the game they’ve won in this series, neither have great odds to win the West., with both still sitting at +1100. If the Warriors and Rockets continue to poke each other in the eyes and dislocate each other’s fingers, these feel like GREAT odds to take.

Both these series are going to be great to watch, and even more fun to bet. Good luck!