Can Houston or Tennessee Upset Huge Favorites Baltimore and KC In The AFC?

Both AFC divisional games feature huge underdogs on the road vs. prohibitive favorites, and on paper, neither game is supposed to be close, but that’s why the game isn’t played on paper. The two games also feature three of the best young quarterbacks in the league and a quarterback who’s arguably the hottest in the league right now.

First, let’s take a closer look at both games, and second, make sure to check out 888 Sport for the latest NFL lines and NFL betting tips.

Tennessee Titans (+320) @ Baltimore Ravens (-420) 

o/u 47 (-110), Ravens -9 (-110)

Tennessee is coming into Baltimore a week after slaying the big bad wolf in its own wolf’s den, i.e. the New England Patriots. What better way for Tennessee to follow up that win with a win over the 1-seed Ravens? The way they do this is two-fold.

First, they need league-leading rusher running back Derrick Henry to go nuts again like he did last week vs. New England. Henry rushed for 182(!) yards against New England’s very good run defense, including 96 yards after contact, so why would the Titans even try to flip that script? Keep feeding the beast, right? Henry has been the focus of the Ravens defense since about a minute after the clock hit all zeroes in that Patriots game--they do not want Henry to go off like he did vs. the Pats. The Ravens want Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill to have to beat them. Tannehill was one of the best QBs in the league the last 10 weeks of the season, yet vs. the Pats he only threw for 70+ yards; that will have to change if Henry is slowed down.

The second thing Tennessee has to accomplish to pull off the win is for their defense to contain Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. Jackson has had an MVP-like season, in fact he is the MVP frontrunner and should run away with the voting for it. The Titans defense has been a bend-but-don’t-break defense all season, rarely blitzing. They’re willing to give up yards, just not touchdowns.

That may or may not play into the hands of the Ravens offense, who finished 3rd in the league in touchdown percentage once in the red zone (Tennessee’s offense was 1st). Look for Tennessee to try to disguise coverages and confuse the newly turned 23-year-old Jackson and force him into critical mistakes, ones he really hasn’t made all season.

The Ravens path to victory is simple: keep doing what you’ve been doing. The Ravens have won 12 games in a row on their way to the best record in the league by playing ​their ​game and not the game of their opponents. If the Titans think they can control the clock by running Henry all night and keeping the Ravens offense off the field, the Ravens did exactly that better than anyone else this season.

The Ravens averaged 206 yards rushing per game, on their way to breaking the total rushing yards record held by the 1978 Patriots. Controlling the clock and time of possession is what they do best, all because of their elite running game. The Ravens use misdirection to confuse defenses, along with a variety of sets that include three tight ends, three running backs, two quarterbacks--you get the drift. Everyone has said they have a plan to stop them, but there hasn’t been a defensive game plan yet that’s done it.

For the Ravens defense, they simply have to tackle Henry. That’s easier said than done obviously, but it’s the simple truth. They can’t let him break first contact and get extra yards. If Tannehill beats them, so be it, but Henry is the head of the beast. Chop that off and they win. Either way, this will be the most physical game of the postseason.

Favorite plays here are: ​

• Titans +9 (-110)
• Total Points over 47 (-110)
• Titans +9.5 and under 47.5 (+225) ​

Favorite prop bets: ​

• Lamar Jackson over 220.5Passing Yards (+105)
• ​​Mark Andrews over 4.5 Receptions (+140)
• Lamar Jackson over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

Houston Texans (+325) @ Kansas City Chiefs (-435) 

o/u 51 (-110), Chiefs -9 (-110)

For most of their game vs. Buffalo last week, Houston looked like their goose was cooked and headed for another disappointing quick out in the playoffs. Down 16-0 in the third quarter, they clawed their way all the way back and ended up winning in overtime. They can’t afford another slow start against this vaunted Chiefs offense, or they will get blown out of the stadium.

Quarterback Deshaun Watson will have to do a much better job of getting the ball to stud wide receiver DeAndre Jordan. Jordan had zero catches in the 1st half last week. The Texans will have to keep up with the Chiefs on the scoreboard to have any chance at winning this game because frankly, I just don’t see how the Texans defense slows Patrick Mahomes and all of that speed on offense, down. Their best defense will be their offense controlling the time of possession and keeping Mahomes and company off the field.

We all know about KC’s offense, but the defense has been playing lights out for the past several weeks, and they recently acquired former Raven Terrell Suggs to fill the role of pass rushing specialist on passing downs. They also have defensive back Tyrann Mathieu doing literally ​everything ​and causing all kinds of chaos out there. He can cover the best receiver, blitz, ballhawk and run it back for six, you name it.

We're just going to tell you this now, it’s going to be a long day for Houston.

Wait for it...”Houston, you have a problem.”

The favorite plays here are: ​

• Chiefs -9 (-110)
• Chiefs -9.5
• Total Points under 51.5 (+275). ​

Favorite prop bets are:

• Tyreek Hill First Touchdown Scorer (+600)
• ​​Damien Williams over 54.5 Yards Rushing (-118)​
• ​Chiefs over 3.5 Total Sacks (-124)

So there you have it. Even with a likely Chiefs blowout, both games have value, and both games should still be entertaining. Enjoy watching, and good luck!

*Credit to the main photo of this article belongs to Ron Schwane/Associated Press (Jackson), Elise Amendola/Associated Press (Henry), Eric Christian Smith/Associated Press (Watson)