Only A Few Weeks Left To Make A Claim To The CFB! Who Wants In?

Week ten of the college football season arrives after a week nine that saw a handful of contenders suffer huge losses that struck a blow to their College Football Playoff chances. Then-#5 Oklahoma suffered an inexcusable upset at unranked Kansas State. Then-#9 Auburn lost to new #1 LSU, effectively knocking Auburn out of the CFP, and then-#8 Notre Dame got crushed by Michigan--goodbye to any CFP hopes the Irish were holding on to--while Ohio State and Penn State continued to roll.

This week we have a few big matchups that have some CFP implications as well as hold some wagering value so let’s take a look at them.

#8 Georgia Bulldogs (-250) @ #6 Florida Gators (+185), o/u 44.5 (-114)
The sole top-10 matchup of the week, this game, dubbed “The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party”, has some especially big stakes in its 2019 iteration. Both teams have one loss (both in conference) and are both tied for the lead in the East Division of the SEC. That makes this game virtually a knockout game for not only the conference championship, but also knocks the loser out of any chance at a CFP berth. Though the ​spread for this game is Georgia -6.5 (-114), these two teams are a lot closer than that, at least statistically. Both teams have high-scoring offenses (Georgia averages 36 points/game while Florida averages 32.5 points/game), but where both butter their bread is with defense. Both are in the top 25 in yards allowed and both are excellent at getting after the quarterback. This game is going to come down to which quarterback between Jake Fromm (Georgia) and Kyle Trask (Florida) makes the least mistakes. Florida in front of their home crowd will cause Fromm to make one mistake too many. So with that, the value play here is ​Florida moneyline (+185). ​We also like ​Florida Quarter 1 moneyline (+210).

#15 SMU Mustangs (+148) @ #24 Memphis Tigers (-200), o/u 72 (-114)
We head out to the American Athletic Conference for the first time in this series of previews for the other marquee matchup of the weekend, #15 SMU at #24 Memphis. SMU is 8-0 this season and bringing back memories of the old “Pony Express” days of the 1980’s (minus the cheating and scandal), while Memphis is 7-1 and also fielding one of their best teams in years. This game is so big that even ESPN’s College Gameday will be in town to do their weekly show from there. Lots of hype. The winner of this game will have the inside track to the AAC championship game as they are both in the AAC West Division (along with one-loss Navy). Both of these teams light up the scoreboard while defense is an afterthought for both (though Memphis’ defense is slightly better), which is why the over/under is so high in this tilt. SMU’s 8-0 record is slightly deceiving because they’ve had some close calls vs sub-par competition. They had to come back from way down in the 4th quarter at home vs. Tulsa and then it took three overtimes to finish them off--Tulsa has two wins this season. Then they nearly lost at 3-win Houston last week. Memphis will be carried by the home crowd, and will win this game, but those total points are A LOT. The value play here is ​Home Team moneyline and Under 71.5 Total Points (+185).

#7 Oregon Ducks (-210) @ USC Trojans (+160), o/u 62 (-114)
Last but not least, we have an important Pac-12 matchup between USC and Oregon. Though USC, isn’t ranked and are a 3-loss team, they are still in control of their own destiny in the Pac-12 South Division, where they are 4-1 and hold the tiebreaker over 4-1 Utah. USC knows that they can get a berth to the Pac-12 championship game and then potentially a Rose Bowl bid, if they win out. Oregon has done everything but officially won the Pac-12 North Division, as they hold a 3-game lead over second place Stanford. The Ducks have bigger fish to fry as they still have a shot at a CFP berth, but they also have zero room for error as one more loss effectively ends their chances there. USC is 4-0 at the Coliseum this year and has shown a proclivity to rise up against top-10 opponents, as they beat #9 Utah there back in September. Their defense plays much better at home, and they will have to, as Oregon comes in with a very balanced offense that doesn’t make many mistakes; quarterback Justin Herbert has thrown 21 touchdowns to only one interception. Oregon’s defense was a strength, but over the last two weeks they’ve given up 66 points--they look vulnerable, especially in the back end. Look for USC, with their very talented group of receivers, to attack the Oregon secondary. This will be a very close game, but we like the upset and the value of ​USC moneyline (+160).​ Another value play is ​Home Team moneyline and under 62.5 total points (+335).

There’s your week 10 college football preview. All three of these games should be fun to watch. Enjoy, and good luck!

*Credit to the main photo of this article belongs to Wade Payne/Associated Press