Who Will Step Up And Who Will Go Down? Outlooks For The Bottom EPL Teams in 2019-20

Hey everyone outside the Big 6! You say you want to play with the big boys? You want to dabble in the top tier, maybe even find yourself in Champions League contention around December? You want to be this year’s Wolves? Or, why stop there, this year’s Leicester City? 

Well, who knows? Some of the big clubs have been dealing with their own issues. Manchester United doesn’t have a go-to striker. With no more Eden Hazard, Chelsea don’t really have a leader, and thanks to their transfer ban, they won’t get one anytime soon. No matter how much talent, Arsenal is always on the verge of blowing it completely, and Harry Kane could pull up lame again and where does that leave Tottenham? We know where it leaves you, Crystal Palace or Aston Villa or Brighton. It leaves you with some hope, which is exactly what you should have at the beginning of the season. 

Before we get too far along and reality sinks in, let’s take a look at some of the bigger longshots to make it into the top 10, and those who’s odds are better to get sent down. 

Aston Villa (+150000 To Win, +20000 Top 4, +5000 Top 6, +400 Top 10)

Aston Villa have returned to the Premier League after a three year absence, and with new owners ready to spend whatever it takes to stay up, they’re ready to show that this is not just a one year visit back to their old stomping ground. Their finish last year in the Championship was stunning, as Jack Grealish and the rest of the boys in claret played out of their minds in the last few months to make their way back via the playoffs. Not that many from the resurgent squad of last year remain, however, as the financial boost from the promotion meant bringing in new talent at the expense of chemistry. So now Villa have pricy new toys like Brazilian striker Wesley, who was brought on for 22 million, and Tyrone Mings at somewhere around 26 million, both who can strengthen the front line. But all eyes will be on Grealish, who returns to the top flight better, older, wiser and with something to prove. (Relegation odds: +225)

Bournemouth (+150000 To Win, +15000 Top 4, +5000 Top 6, +300 Top 10)

To think it was only 10 years ago that Bournemouth was in administration, in League 2 and docked 17 points before the season even started. Then, at the wee young age of 31, Eddie Howe took the reigns and just like that, they are Premier League regulars, finishing as high as 9^th just a few years ago. Eddie Howe is still around, and, after a disappointing season last year, before which they spent more than usual but still finished 14^th, they’re looking for the players they laid out so much cash out on last year to step up and take them higher this year. Callum Wilson and Josh King are a formidable pair of strikers, with the former hitting 14 goals and 9 assists last year, while new signingLloyd Kelly from Bristol City will shore up the back. The best part of this team is the fact that there still remains a solid core of the group that fought its way back to the Premier League, led by Charlie Daniels, Steve Cook, and Simon Francis. While they may never reach the top, AC Bournemouth is always worth rooting for. (Relegation odds: +350)

Brighton and Hove Albion (+150000 To Win, +20000 Top 4, +4000 Top 6, +300 Top 10)

What happens when you spend almost 80 million pounds on new talent to get you to the next level of Premier League play and you end up 17^th and just missing relegation? Well, if you’re last year’s Brighton manager Chris Hughton, you get fired. Warranted or not, Hughton took the fall for the team underperforming last year, and this year it will be up to Graham Potter to bring what is basically the same group together and avoid the drop. Will he be able to unearth the potential in the big money spent last year on Jurgen Locadia, Yves Bissouma, and Alireza Jahanbakhsh, and mesh them with England call-up and hometown hero Lewis Dunk? The first match of the season, an 3-0 away thrashing of Watford, gives Brighton hope that this year might be different and they h=can exhale a little earlier in the season. (Relegation odds: +300)

Burnley (+150000 To Win, +20000 Top 4, +5000 Top 6, +400 Top 10)

Welcome to another season of Burnley manager’s Sean Dyche’s “Burnley Vs The World.” The boss has been using the mantra for seven years as his team has made their way to and from the Premier League on a shoestring budget but top-flight attitude (don’t forget their 7^th place finish in 2018.) As they start their fourth consecutive season in the Premier League, without the added gruel of the Europa League, the Clarets can keep their eyes on the Premier League  prize as they look to stay up another year. England international James Tarkowski will look to lead his defense to a season similar to the one they had in their 2017-18 season when they conceded only 39 goals. Meanwhile up front, newly re-signed striker Jay Rodrigues looks to match last year’s 22 goal output in the Championship with West Brom in the big leagues. (Relegation odds: +275)

Crystal Palace (+150000 To Win, +20000 Top 4, +4000 Top 6, +300 Top 10)

Pick a lane, Crystal Palace. Are you bottom of the top, top of the bottom, or next in line for relegation? Last year was a master class in their ability to tease us with how good and bad they could be. They lost eight of their first 13 games to prepare their fans for a potential relegation. But then what do they do? Beat the previously unbeaten Manchester City, and the go on to win 9 after New Year’s Day to help them finish in the continually awkward spot of 12^th in the table. So is this the year they make a leap or regression? Well, despite not wanting to be, Wilfried Zaha is still with the team, so much will depend if his frustrations with not joining Everton will make its way on to the pitch. Despite their huge 50 million pound haul for selling Aaron Wan-Bisaka, they didn’t bring anyone on note other than the permanent signing of Jordan Ayew, who scored only one goal for them last year. Roy Hodgson has time and time again shown that he knows what he’s doing, so underestimate him at your peril. (Relegation odds: +275)

Southampton (+150000 To Win, +15000 Top 4, +4000 Top 6, +275 Top 10)

Unlike the nerve-racking experiences of the past two years, Southampton fans are ready to return to the heady days of only a few years ago when they would find themselves solidly in the Premier League’s top ten. (7^th in 2015, 6^th in 2016, 8^th in 2017.) And while stars like Sadio Mane and Virgil van Dijk are off enjoying their new lives at the top of the pile, Southampton are rebuilding, led by the vision of mid-season managerial replacement Ralph Hassenhuttl, who is hoping to bring his record of success in the Bundesliga to the Saints. Captain Pierre Emile Hojbjerg will once again join forces with Danny Ings, who made his loan permanent this offseason, as well as new signee Che Adams, who hopes to become the first Southampton striker to hit for double digitgoals since Mane left for Liverpool three seasons ago. A full season of the quirky yet successful Hassenhuttl, along with a new wave of young talent, seem like a good pick to stay up, and even fight for a place in the top 10 again. (Relegation odds: +400)

Watford (+150000 To Win, +15000 Top 4, +4000 Top 6, +275 Top 10)

One could say that Watford went into the offseason with the adage it ain’t broke, don’t fix it planted firmly in their minds. (Of course, Manchester City are working from a similar mindset but different sized change purse, so their version of if it ain’t broke means making a club record signing of Rodri.) But Watford have to feel pretty good after last season’s 11^th place finish as well as a place in the FA Cup final, no matter what the result ended up being. Javi Garcia’s side were consistent all season long, never in real peril of the drop, but never really a challenger for a place in Europe either. This summer they were able to fend off the advances for Abdoulaye Doucoure from top flight clubs, while making a minimal signing with West Brom defender Craig Dawson being the only real name of note. Watford will once again rely on the same cast of exciting forwards including Troy Deeney, Andre Gray, Ricardo Pereyra, and Gerard Deulofeu, fed by the attacking midfield duo of Etienne Capoue and Abdoulaye Doucoure. The only real question is depth, as Watford survived most of last season without any real injuries. If they can do the same again, a place in the top 10 seems within reach. (Relegation odds: +400)

Newcastle (+200000 To Win, +25000 Top 4, +6600 Top 6, +500 Top 10)

Poor Newcastle. Their fans are sticking to their pledge “If Rafa goes, we go,” with over 10,000 of the 42,000 season tickets remaining unsold at the season’s start, and 10 supporters groups choosing to boycott the season opener. They have good reason to stay away as well, with owner Mike Ashley’s misguided sacking of Rafael Benitez, who not only brought them back to the Premier League, but kept them from relegation with less than stellar lineups. In his place is Steve Bruce, who has a new toy at his disposal in the 40 million pound striker Joelinton, who Newcastle hopes is the second coming of another Brazilian Roberto Firmino, but it’s a little early for that high of a compliment. Miguel Almiron, who spent half the year with Newcastle after a move from MLS, will have a full season to show his worth, feeding Joelinton and another new winger Allan Saint-Maximin from Nice. But the real concern is in the back, where Jamal Lascelles, Fabian Schar, and Florian Lejeune are back from a less than stellar season with some help from loanee Jetro Willems. Many have Bruce pegged to be the first manager fired. But there aren’t many pledging “If Stevie goes, we go.” (Relegation odds: +188)

Norwich (+300000 To Win, +50000 Top 4, +10000 Top 6, +1100 Top 10)

Unlike their fellow promoted sides Aston Villa and Sheffield United, Norwich has chosen to stick with what got them here in their return to the Premier League after a 3 year absence. Their only signing of note was of ex-West Ham right back Sam Bynam, a once-promising starlet who never found his place in London and hopes to re-start his career in Norwich. Manager Daniel Farke was able to lead his side to a comfortable first place in the Championship last season, using a bruising attack that led the league with a massive 93 goal haul. Emi Buendia, Onel Hernandez, and Marco Stiepermann teamed up with super-striker Teemu Pukki to score 53 of those goals, with Championship Golden Boot winner Pukki putting home 29 of them in 43 games. The question will be can this same attack be as successful in the Premier League. History doesn’t bode well, as the stars of the lower league are always hard pressed to translate that success at the highest levels of soccer. Another downer for the Canaries? Three of their first 5 games are against Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City. In their six seasons in the top flight, four have ended in relegation. Unfortunately, that fifth one looks like it could very much happen. (Relegation odds: +100)

Sheffield United (+30000 To Win, +50000 Top 4, +10000 Top 6, +1200 Top 10)

Sheffield United is a great story. But manager Chris Wilder may be an even better one. At the end of the 2016, they had finished 11^th in League One, and the trend was aggressively downward. But then in came Chris Wilder, a manager who’d been bouncing around the lower levels of British soccer for a while at places like Halifax Town and Oxford United. In the three years since he was put in charge, however, they’ve progressed up the leagues until, boom, here they are, in 2019-20 season, back in the Premier League for the first time since 2007. And what did he get for pulling off such a feat? A new contract through 2022, and a huge wad of cash (comparatively of course) to spend on new talent. Now for every case study that shows that blowing wads of cash is the way to avoid relegation and stay in the Premier League (last year’s Wolves) there are an equal if not greater number of teams that prove the opposite (Fulham of two years ago.) Sheffield took an interesting approach with their big spend, bringing in three of the biggest talents from the Championship in Swansea’s Oli McBurnie, QPR striker Luke Freeman, and Callum Robinson from Preston, while also taking a chance on Bournemouth’s Lys Mousset, who is one of those “can he live up to his potential” labels that fail as often as they succeed. Speaking of potential, keep an eye on new signee Ravel Morrison (yes, thatRavel Morrison) who is getting one more chance to make it after being unable to fulfill his early promise at Manchester United. If it all comes together, we can all celebrate for Chris Wilder. (Relegation odds: -125)