The Old Guard Takes on The New In The U.S. Open Women's Final.

After two weeks of upsets and surprises, the pairing in U.S. Open Women's Final will be something even more amazing: predictable.

 

When the tournament started, Serena Williams was the odds on favorite to make and win the final. At the same time, 19 year-old Canadian tennis phenom Bianca Andreescu was being picked by many to continue her successful 2019 run with a trip to the finals as well. So all in all, we ended up right where we thought we'd be. It just took some turns and tears to get there. (Thanks again for that magical moment Naomi Osaka and Coco Gauff.)

 

So now that we're here, who's going to win? Let's dig deeper.

 

The Final

No. 8 Serena Williams (-295) vs. No. 15 Bianca Andreescu (+245)

What more can we say about Serena? Here's some things:

• Her appearance in the final set a record for longest gap in between finals appearances. Her first U.S. Open was 20 years ago when she won in Queens at age 19. Now as an almost 40 year-old, she's back and looking just as dominant.
•  Do the math on the fact above and you'll see that her opponent Andreescu wasn't even born when Serena won her first U.S. Open title.
• As mentioned many many times (almost as many as the fact that Gael Monfils and Elina Svitolina are dating!) Serena is looking for her 24th career Grand Slam, tying her with Margaret Court for the most major wins in women's tennis history.
• With a win on Saturday, Serena can officially not have to talk about last year's final against Naomi Osaka ever again.
• She's been dominant in entire tournament, but especially in the last few matches. Throughout, she only lost one set, in the second round to US phenom Caty McNally. 

As for Andreescu, she's had one hell of a year. Last year here in Queens, she lost in the first round off qualifying. Since then:

• She qualified for the Auckland Open, then proceeded to march all the way to the final, beating top seed Caroline Wozniacki during her run.
• She entered Indian Wells as a wild card, and then won the whole damn thing, with wins against Elina Svitolina and Angelique Kerber along the way.
• After nursing an injured shoulder during the summer, she came back for her "hometown" tournament at the Canadian Open, and won that too, becoming the first Canadian woman to do so since 1969.That run included an emotional win against Serena due to an injury that prompted an on-court exchange that quickly went viral.

So, in a nutshell, it's the old guard versus the new guard (the 18 year age difference marks the largest difference in a final the Open era) with two players who respect and admire each other as both players and people. Since she's returned from having her first child, Serena is 0-3 in her quest to get Grand Slam number 24, and while the young Canadian seems poised to have a brilliant career, we think the crowd, the focus, and the power that will be in the stadium on Saturday will be enough for Williams to make history.

 

 

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Well, we warned you. The U.S. Open Women’s Singles field is anything but predictable. 

 

Of the top 10 seeds, only two remain (#5 Elina Svitolina and #8 Serena Williams) as pre-tournament favorites Simona Halep tumbled out in the second round, and world #1 seed Naomi Osaka lost in the 4^th. Other trendy picks, like Williams and 15^th ranked Bianca Andreescu, have survived 3^rd set matches and injury scares to make it to the quarters. So let’s look at who’s left and what the betting lines are.

 

Semifinal #1

#5 Elina Svitolina(+230) vs #8 Serena Williams (-286)

 

On Tuesday, Serena Williams came into her match with what was supposedly a lingering injury, the result of a major rolled ankle during her previous match against Petra Martic. Well, it turns out it wasn’t that major. Williams rolled past 18^thranked Qiang Wang 6-1, 6-0 in just 45 minutes, finishing with 25 winners, to zero for Wang, while out-pointing her 50-15. It was a performance that seemed to signal that she was steaming towards her record-tying 24^thGrand Slam title and nothing could stop her. 

Alas, her next opponent may think differently. Fifth seeded Elina Svitolina has had one of the more dominant tournaments so far, with wins against Serena’s sister Venus in the 2^ndround, a huge win against one of the pre-tournament favorites Madison Keys, and a decisive win in the quarters against 2019’s most successful player, Johanna Konta. Oddly enough, the biggest story coming out of Queens about Svitolina isn’t about her dominance, but about her relationship with French men’s player Gael Monfils, who lost in his quarterfinals on Wednesday. A win against Serena in the semis would change all of that.

Now, the match itself is a hard one to call. Serena has momentum, the crowd, and history on her side, but she’s had a harder time making it through a full tournament this year thanks to injuries. Svitolina, on the other hand, is facing pressure she’s never faced before. Despite being ranked 5^thin the world, and having won a tour-high 9 titles since 2017, she only reached her fisrt Grand Slam semis this summer at Wimbledon, where she lost to eventual winner Simona Halep. In head-to-head matchups, Serena leads 4-1, but the Ukrainian won their last match-up at the 2016 Summer Olympics. Oddsmakers like Serena, and so do we.

 

Semifinal #2

#13 Belinda Bencic (+120) vs #15 Bianca Andreescu (-143)

 

Despite being seeded 15^thin the U.S. Open, Bianca Andreescu came in with the wind at her back and with many picking her as a less than dark horse to win the whole thing. She has owned the hard courts in 2019, having won at Indian Wells, then again at the Rogers Cup, so there’s no surprise that once again, she dominated in Queens. Despite dropping her first set of the tournament in her quarterfinal match against Elise Mertens, the 19 year old Canadian dominated the rest of the match, winning 3-6, 6-2, 6-3, to become the youngest woman to reach the semis in 10 years. 

Her next foe, 13 seed Belinda Bencic, will be competing in her first Grand Slam semifinal after outlasting Donna Vekic 7-5 (5), 6-3 in the quarters, using the same big hitting that served her so well in her upset of #1 seed Naomi Osaka. It’s been a while since Bencic has been on this big of a stage, as her last big showing at a Grand Slam was a spot in the quarters at the 2014 here at the US Open. She’s hoping to take it to the next level in the semis.

Andreescu is the clear favorite, thanks to the roll she’s been on and her dominance of hard courts this year. But despite the relative inexperience of both players on a big stage, Bencic is the more seasoned of the two, so keep an eye out for that first set. That said, Andreescu showed that she can come back from any first set jitters to win a match. We expect her to roll on to the finals.

 

 

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With 5 different winners in the past 5 years, the U.S, Open women’s singles championship hasn’t had a consecutive champion since Serena Williams ended her three year reign from 2012-2014. In short, there is no Big Three in women’s tennis. But guess what? That’s a great thing for those of us who are placing wagers on the tournament, as no single player (or trio of players) is most likely to win, giving a wider number of possibilities for winners, both on the court and in the wallet.

That being said, as the tournament enters the second round, let’s break down the four different quarters and see who the favorites are, and who could surprise some people.

 

Quarter One

• Naomi Osaka: (+1100)The reigning champ and world number one took home the title at the Australian Open, but has struggled since, failing to reach the second week in France and England. And a few weeks ago she had to retire in her quarterfinal match against Sophia Kenin. But a reigning champ at world number one at +1100is worth taking a chance on. 
• Kiki Bertens: (+3300)Another one with a disappointing 2019. But she’s also someone who seems due for something big. With a bunch of her rivals dealing with injuries, it could be a way to sneak past them for a big, much needed Grand Slam win/
• Coco Gauff : (+6600)Is this the tournament that the 15 year-old sensation breaks through? She’ll come up against a big test early if she makes it to Round three with a match against Osaka.

Quarter Two

• Simona Halep: (+650)In what looks from the outside as one of the easier draws, the Wimbledon champ is on a roll and can continue it here in Queens. While she hasn’t done well here previously, falling in the first round the past two years, she has it all going for her now.
• Petra Kvitkova: (+2700)When she’s fit, she’s incredibly difficult to beat. But unfortunately, fitness hasn’t been her friend this year. In fact, thanks to various and sundry ailments, she has played a mere 5 matches since May. She says she’s ready to go. If she is, watch out.
• Bianca Andreescu: (+1100)The trendy pick to win it all this year, and why not? The Canadian is a monster on hard courts, having won at Indian Wells, then again at the Rogers Cup. Thanks to retiring in Miami and at the French Open, she can somewhat legitimately say she hasn’t lost since March. At +1100 it’s great odds to take that her streak continues. 
• Caroline Wozniaki: (+8000)Don’t count out the 2 time U.S. Open finalist. She plays well here, and with some help could finally make it to the top. She’s been in the semis 5 times since 2009.

Quarter Three

• Carolina Pliskova: (+900)The 2016 finalist has a habit of peaking right before big tournaments and then failing to show up during the Grand Slams. (She’s won three titles this year- all tune-ups for Grand Slams.) She’s showed she can win here, but can the former #1 get back to the Finals and take it home? 
• Madison Keys: (+1200)She reached the final two years ago, and this year she’s seemed to amp up her game at the right time so she can finally take home the title. She won against stiff competition in Cincinnati for her second title of the season. Can she win her first Major here? Another good pick at +1200.
• Sofia Kenin: (+2500)The 20 year-old has done well on whatever surface she’s played on, and is  dark-horse pick here for many. The draw is filled with inconsistency so if she gets on a roll, it’s hers for the taking.

Quarter Four

• Serena Williams: (+300)There’s a reason she’s the betting favorite despite being seeded 8^th. She is still on the hunt for the elusive 24^thGrand Slam title, as well as a bit of redemption from last year’s U.S. Open Finals meltdown. As evidenced by her comeback last night against newbie Caty McNally, she still has a lot of gas (and fire) in the tank.
• Ashleigh Bartay: (+900)For the WTA’s Player of the Year, Bartay isn’t getting the respect one would think. Sure she’s the top seed in the quarter, but her 42-8 record this year, with wins in Miami, Roland Garros, and Birmingham don’t match her +900 odds. 
• Anastasija Sevastova: (+10000)Looking for a fun long shot? Look no further than the +10000 Sevastova. A semi-finalist last year, she plays well on hard courts, and this might be the bracket she can sneak through. 

 

Have your own dark horse? The women’s tournament is always filled with surprises, so make your picks and sit back and enjoy!!!

 

*Credit to the main photo of this article belongs to AP Photo/Charles Krupa